"Bookmakers are now offering odds of 10/1 that Scotland will become independent in the next 50 years. William Hill has also cut the odds on the SNP becoming the largest party in the Scottish Parliament from 50/1 to 25/1.An antidote to the predictions/forebodings of English commentators who have just noticed Scotland is there. Dunno how bookies work exactly but I presume these odds are worked out using evidence like this YouGov poll [pdf], which shows support either for the SNP or independence insufficient to achieve separation from the rest of the UK.
On chances of independence, William Hill offers odds of 200/1 that Scotland will become independent of the rest of Britain within five years; 100/1 within ten years and 10/1 within 50 years."
Support for the SNP is higher than support for the policy of independence. With regards to the latter, 33% of those polled said they did not believe the union was worth preserving, against 53% who said that it was.
The SNP lead Labour in voting intentions but if the parties are divided into nationalists and unionists, the former are trailing with 45% of the sample saying they intended to vote for them, compared to 60% declaring their intention to vote for one of the unionist parties.
Assuming a) that something like these intentions were translated into actual votes in May and b) that our democratic mechanisms actually work - the most likely outcome would be an SNP victory in Holyrood, followed by a defeat in an independence referendum.
These are two big assumptions to make, obviously.
Update: This is funny.
P.S. For anyone who has beheld the insanity that are Comment is Free threads and gaped in wonder should take a swatch at some of the stuff that is routinely left under articles in the Scotsman.