"All things are wearisome, more than one can say." - Ecclesiastes 1:8

Monday, January 15, 2007

Independence a tad unlikely - in the near furture, anyway

According to the bookies. From the Scotsman:
"Bookmakers are now offering odds of 10/1 that Scotland will become independent in the next 50 years. William Hill has also cut the odds on the SNP becoming the largest party in the Scottish Parliament from 50/1 to 25/1.

On chances of independence, William Hill offers odds of 200/1 that Scotland will become independent of the rest of Britain within five years; 100/1 within ten years and 10/1 within 50 years."
An antidote to the predictions/forebodings of English commentators who have just noticed Scotland is there. Dunno how bookies work exactly but I presume these odds are worked out using evidence like this YouGov poll [pdf], which shows support either for the SNP or independence insufficient to achieve separation from the rest of the UK.

Support for the SNP is higher than support for the policy of independence. With regards to the latter, 33% of those polled said they did not believe the union was worth preserving, against 53% who said that it was.

The SNP lead Labour in voting intentions but if the parties are divided into nationalists and unionists, the former are trailing with 45% of the sample saying they intended to vote for them, compared to 60% declaring their intention to vote for one of the unionist parties.

Assuming a) that something like these intentions were translated into actual votes in May and b) that our democratic mechanisms actually work - the most likely outcome would be an SNP victory in Holyrood, followed by a defeat in an independence referendum.

These are two big assumptions to make, obviously.

Update: This is funny.

P.S. For anyone who has beheld the insanity that are Comment is Free threads and gaped in wonder should take a swatch at some of the stuff that is routinely left under articles in the Scotsman.

7 comments:

Will said...

"P.S. For anyone who has beheld the insanity that are Comment is Free threads and gaped in wonder should take a swatch at some of the stuff that is routinely left under articles in the Scotsman."

It has ben noticed.

Shuggy said...

In the Scotsman, you mean? Serious damn mind loss, I'm sure you'll agree.

Will said...

Yes. In the Hootsman.

At last we agree!

David B. Wildgoose said...

Like you I don't think that Scotland will immediately vote for Independence even if they vote for the SNP - but it will be close.

But if England is continued to be denied equality with an English Parliament and end to our second class status within the Union then it won't matter. Because if England turns against the Union it's finished.

The current settlement is leading to a rise in nationalism that will inevitably lead to breakup. Labour's face is set against an English Parliament and for now at least both the Tories and the Lib Dems are also opposed.

If the boil isn't lanced THIS YEAR then it will be too late, and the Union will be finished.

You've said you're going to vote Labour in order to defend the Union. I suggest that voting for Labour will actually doom the Union, but that's your choice.

Don said...

So if Scotland goes fully independent, would second gen immigrants get a right of return? I'm getting on and all that free chiropody is starting to look attractive...

Paulie said...

"If the boil isn't lanced THIS YEAR then it will be too late, and the Union will be finished."

Dear me! I'd no idea it was so serious!

David B. Wildgoose said...

I have to agree with Paulie that it's not serious from an English perspective - we get back true self-government, and if it means leaving the EU as well then we also lose that external interference in our affairs.

I had my honeymoon in Scotland back in 1993. It's also the time I personally experienced just how anti-English some Scots are.

It appears that there is no real appetite outside England for a renewed federal Union, just a futile defence of the current discriminatory setup, so we might as well accept it's finished.

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